Aplicação da VECM para Medir o Impacto Econômico do Turismo em São Tomé e Príncipe Integrando Variáveis Macroeconômicas

This quantitative research aims to analyze the long-run relationship and causality between economic development, tourism, other macroeconomic variables in context of Sao Tome Principe (STP). First, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Phillips Perron (PP) unit root test is applied, followed by Johansen cointegration Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Gross domestic product (GDP), tourism receipts (TR), foreign direct investment (FDI), Unemployment rate (UR), Inflation (INF) are used econometric model from 1993 2019. The findings indicate a positive GDP explanatory TR FDI. It also indicates negative INF UR. In terms short-run causality, results reveal unidirectional running FDI bidirectional INF. Furthermore, it suggests all independent GDP. first study that presents new perspective STP applying VECM integrating several variables.